How Likely Earth is, given the chance, to invade an alien civilization?
And what about aliens invading us?
Alberto Caballero is a PhD student dealing with “conflict resolution” in human history at the University of Vigo in Spain. However, his historical and international relations studies led him unexpectedly away from home, causing him to publish a study on the likelihood of a hostile alien civilization invading Earth. To elaborate this projection, Caballero relied on data and information that he knows well and that concern, first of all, the invasions we made at home. So initially the question was reversed: “how likely is the Earth to invade an alien civilization? To reach his estimate he first counted the number of countries that invaded others between 1915 and 2022, (United States at the top). So he calculated each country’s likelihood of launching an invasion based on the percentage of military spending (obviously the United States on top). From there he added each country’s individual probability of instigating an invasion, then divided the sum by the total number of countries on Earth, ending up with what he describes as “the current human probability of invasion by an extraterrestrial civilization”.
According to this model, the current odds of humans invading another inhabited planet are 0.028%.
However, other variations have to be added, of course. For example, the fact that we can barely send rovers to Mars, we would in no way be able to make war on anyone until we get to a certain level of technological advancement. And the same goes for other civilizations that may be present in the Milky Way.
“The probability of an extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization is about two orders of magnitude less than the probability of a collision of a planet-killing asteroid”, he wrote in his article, adding that an asteroid such as it has doomed the dinosaurs is an event that occurs 1 time in 100 million years. Of course, this is just a hypothesis, moreover based on ourselves. But we know well that alien life forms may be impossible for us to imagine, both in form and in intentions.